Super Bowl LV is finally here, and we couldn’t have asked for a better matchup. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off against the Patrick Mahomes led Kansas City Chiefs. This will be Brady’s 10th Super Bowl appearance, while Kansas City is looking to successfully defend its crown and repeat as champions.
Fun facts: The Bucs will be the first home team to play in a Super Bowl and Tom Brady will be the oldest player to ever play in the big game.
When it comes to gambling, the Super Bowl is always king. People from all around the world bet on the game, and this year, look for the money wagered on the event to shatter all previous betting records for a one-day sporting event. Especially with sports betting now legal and operational in 20 U.S. states, including online in Virginia and Michigan.
BetQL has predictions on the side, total, and all top player props for Super Bowl LV. Sign up with BetQL today and become a better bettor!
For betting, you don’t just have to bet on a side or a total. Now there are games within the game, like thousands of prop bets including the coin toss, exotic player props, and what the color of the Gatorade will be.
Now, onto the main event...
Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 56) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Location: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Date and Time: 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, Feb. 7 2021
Sportsbooks quickly opened the Chiefs as -3/-3.5 point favorites. The total for the game opened 57, one of the highest in Super Bowl history. The number seems to be settling in at Chiefs -3 and 56 across most books, but that can always change closer to kick-off.
As for early action, it looks like gamblers are banking on the Chiefs to win their second straight title.
“If early betting is any indication, the public and some of our larger betting customers love the Chiefs,” Jason Scott, VP of Trading at BetMGM, said. “From the early looks of it, the book will likely need the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl.”
When it comes to big bets, they are already starting to roll in, so be sure to check out our notable bet tracker to keep up.
Super Bowl MVP
Every Super Bowl is unique, but there is no denying the importance of quarterbacks and the correlation to the award. Of course, Patrick Mahomes (+100) and Tom Brady (+200) are the two with the shortest odds.
In the past 10 years, seven QB’s, two defensive players, and a wide receiver have taken home Most Valuable Player honors in the Super Bowl.
When it comes to a bet, the value is on Buccaneers RB Leonard Fournette or a couple of Tampa Bay’s defensive players.
Leonard Fournette (+2500)
While the Super Bowl MVP is typically awarded to quarterbacks, and Mahomes is the likely winner if Kansas City wins, the Bucs are constructed differently.
For Tampa Bay to win, Brady does not have to dominate like Mahomes does. TB12 threw three interceptions in the NFC championship win and the Bucs were still able to pull it out.
Brady has won Super Bowl MVP in four of six wins, but wide receivers Deion Branch and Julian Edelman won the other two. Brady is still great, but at 43, the Bucs don't depend on him to win quite as much as the Chiefs depend on Mahomes.
With that in mind, Fournette sticks out at this number. There does seem to be a timeshare between him and Ronald Jones -- Fournette had 12 carries against the Packers while Jones had 10 -- but the former Jaguar has been the more effective runner of the two and continues to see work in passing situations.
“Playoff Lenny” is averaging more than 70 yards and has at least four catches through three postseason games. Matched up with a Kansas City defense that was 28th in defensive rushing success, per SharpFootballStats, there will be plenty of opportunities for Fournette to make an impact in the big game.
Tampa Bay may look to establish the run early in order to limit Kansas City’s possessions. In four losses with Mahomes under center in the past two seasons, the Chiefs have lost the time of possession battle by an average of more than 14 minutes.
If Fournette can bust a few runs and get to 100 yards with a score, he will enter the conversation should the Bucs pull the upset. I see value in this down to 20/1.
Shaquil Barrett (+5000) and Jason Pierre-Paul (+7000)
The Tampa Bay defensive line is the X-factor in Super Bowl LV.
If the Buccaneers front seven can get into the backfield and make plays, they are in great shape to pull the upset.
Just look at the NFC title game as an example. The defensive line sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and they should be able to find success against a banged up Chiefs offensive line. KC has dealt with injuries all season, but it looks even more challenging now after left tackle Eric Fisher tore his achilles late in the AFC championship game.
Barrett had three sacks on Sunday versus the Packers and JPP had two of his own. Both of these defensive linemen are worth some loose change with the high upside payout to win MVP.
Shutting down the Kansas City offense isn’t easy, so if Tampa Bay is able to pressure and sack Mahomes on its way to an upset win, that would be the story of the game. Barrett and JPP will warrant MVP consideration if that situation plays out. Each has good value at this price.
First touchdown scorer
For this bet, look for guys who have a legit chance to score in the game and have 10-1 or longer odds. That criteria leads to Mike Evans at +1100.
The Bucs have scored the first TD in five straight games, all via pass receptions.
Earlier this season when the teams squared off, Evans went for two TD catches against Kansas City. He has also scored the first TD in each of Tampa Bay’s last two games.
For the season, Evans had 13 TDs, scoring in 12 games.
Two other longshots to consider are Antonio Brown at +1800 and Tom Brady at +3500. AB has become Brady’s safety blanket of sorts and Brady’s patented QB sneak is always money from the one yard line. At those odds, both are worth a sprinkle.
Can you guess what the most bet prop bet is every Super Bowl? It's actually the coin toss before the game even starts.
“The coin toss is a very popular Super Bowl prop bet,” Darren Darby, Sports Trader at BetMGM, said. “Customers love early action and the coin toss gives them a chance to win before the game even starts.”
The toss is fun, entertaining, and most of all, simple. The simplicity of the bet is what makes even casual bettors jump into the foray of gambling when it comes to the Super Bowl. You don’t need to be a professional bettor or do any research to pick a 50-50 proposition. You can just guess heads or tails and be on your way.
In Super Bowl history, the coin toss has been heads 25 times and tails 29 times.
As of today, 52.8% of money wagered on the coin toss at BetMGM is on tails.
“Tails is often the most popular side of this prop,” Darby said. “As the old saying goes, ‘tails never fails’.”
The lean here is the Bucs +3.5. Even with a lot of money coming in on the Chiefs, there is some value if you can get Tampa Bay at more than a field goal playing at home.
Mahomes is the best in the game, but the Bucs should be able to get pressure on him in this matchup. Kansas City will be without their key offensive lineman in tackle Eric Fisher. Really bad timing against this Todd Bowles led defense and an attacking Buccaneers defensive line.
Also, Tampa Bay will technically have home-field advantage with Raymond James Stadium hosting the Super Bowl. With the craziness of the pandemic, traveling and routines, that's an advantage for a Bucs team that won their first three playoff games on the road.