Ostrowski: What To Wager On In Bears-Raiders

By 670 The Score
(670 The Score) Bears games have become a race to 17 points, and Sunday in London should be no different.

This lockdown Chicago defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any of its last nine games. In fact, Chase Daniel’s most recent start — a 30-27 overtime loss at the Giants last Dec. 2 — was the last time Khalil Mack and Co. had a bad day at the office.

Daniel is making his fifth career start in Week 5 of his 11th season. The Bears are 5.5-point favorites against the Raiders after getting as low as 4.5 and as high as 6.5 over the course of the week. The game total of 40.5 points has held firm over the last few days. Sports books will need Oakland to cover after the public witnessed Chicago manhandle Minnesota.

The Bears lead the NFL in turnover differential (plus-6) and are second in scoring defense (11.2 points) and sacks (17). Opponents aren’t scoring, but neither are the Bears, who are down to QB2 in Daniel. The under has cashed eight of nine Bears games and six of seven London games.

PICK: Under 40.5

Player props haven’t been posted yet, but keep this in mind for the Bears-Raiders matchup:

It could be the Khalil Mack revenge game. We all know that No. 52 has had this game circled since the NFL's schedule release party. In 18 games with the Bears, Mack has racked up 17 sacks and 10 forced fumbles. Oakland’s entire defensive unit has 18 sacks and eight forced fumbles in 20 games in the same time span. Consider any Mack prop, but be careful because sports books will expect over and yes money, so be price sensitive.

Raiders rookie running back Josh Jacobs is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, while the Bears hold foes to 3.0 rushing yards per attempt, the second-best mark in the NFL. You have to take a look at the under for rushing yards for any opposing back against the Bears as long as the number makes sense.

The Raiders defense has yielded 21 explosive pass plays, the most in the NFL, and Bears coach Matt Nagy appears to trust Daniel to stretch the field more than Mitchell Trubisky. Lamarcus Joyner has struggled mightily with the move from safety to slot corner, rating as Pro Football Focus’s fourth-worst cornerback out of 107. Check on an Anthony Miller prop.

Joe Ostrowski hosts evenings on 670 The Score. Listen to his weekly sports betting podcast here. When he's not on the Score in evenings, he's also a host of You Better You Bet, which runs from 5-9 p.m. weekdays on Radio.com Sports. Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeO670.​