Ostrowski: What To Wager On In Bears-Lions

By 670 The Score
(670 The Score) How far have the Bears fallen off the map? Just eight games ago, the beloved were a trendy Super Bowl pick and Mitchell Trubisky gave sportsbooks their largest liability in the MVP pool. Now, nobody wants to bet on Bears games.

"The lowest handle game at our books is the Lions and the Bears," CG Technology oddsmaker Dave Sharapan told me on Early Odds.

That's on an NFL slate that includes Cardinals-Bucs, Bills-Browns and Giants-Jets games.

If you care, the Bears are 2.5-point home favorites, and the total has dipped to 41.5. It would take some serious dough to get below the key number of 41.

Let's get to my picks of the week.

PICK: Bears team total under 22.5
The matchup is favorable for Chicago to have some success against a Detroit defense allowing 27 points and 424 yards per game, but it's still the Bears' offense. 

Mitchell Trubisky NFL ranks in Year 3:(career starts 27-33)*33rd in TD% (2.3)*33rd in YDS PER ATT (5.6)*33rd in NET YDS PER ATT (3.79)*33rd in YDS PER COMP (8.9)*32nd in YDS PER GM (173.9)*31st in QBR (31.8)*30th in QB RTG (80.0)#Bears100

— Joe Ostrowski (@JoeO670) November 4, 2019

The Bears offense ranks in the bottom five in the NFL in yards per play (4.5), yards per drive (25.1), points per drive (1.5) and success rate.

The Bears have scored more than 22.5 points in only two of their eight games. Both contests included a defensive or special teams touchdown. 

PICK: David Montgomery over rushing yards

The Bears should try to attack the Lions with their run game to keep Matthew Stafford off the field without putting the contest in Trubisky’s hands. Stafford is on pace for a 38-touchdown, 5,000-yard season. 

Montgomery has been on the field for a season-high 73 percent of offensive snaps in each of the last two weeks. The Lions have been gashed for at least 166 rushing yards in three of their last four games. This prop should be set in the high 50s.

Joe Ostrowski hosts evenings on 670 The Score. Listen to his weekly sports betting podcast here. When he's not on the Score in evenings, he's also a host of You Better You Bet, which runs from 5-9 p.m. weekdays on Radio.com Sports. Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeO670.​