2019 NFL MVP Odds: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is Early Favorite to Repeat

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The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released its 2019 NFL MVP odds on Tuesday, and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite (+400) after winning the award last season.

The 6-foot-3, 230-pound Mahomes closed at 35-1 before the 2018 campaign kicked off — tied for the 14th-lowest odds — while being available around 50-1 in the offseason. He posted 5,097 yards and 52 total touchdowns, along with manufacturing the most yards per attempt (8.79 Y/A) among QBs with at least 300 attempts.

QBs have claimed the award in each of the past six seasons, with the Carolina Panthers’ Cam Newton (52-1) and Atlanta Falcons’ Matt Ryan (75-1) producing the highest odds among that group in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Peyton Manning (2008-09/2003-04), Brett Favre (1996-98), Joe Montana (1989-90) and Jim Brown (1957-58) are the lone players to claim the Associated Press’ NFL MVP Award in consecutive seasons.

Mahomes is followed by Aaron Rodgers, who’s won it twice (2011, 2014), and Andrew Luck at +800 apiece. Cowboys tailback Ezekiel Elliott is the first non-QB listed (60-1). Below is the full list of odds, as well as a value pick.

2019 NFL MVP Odds

  • Patrick Mahomes +400
  • Aaron Rodgers +800
  • Andrew Luck +800
  • Carsen Wentz 10-1
  • Drew Brees 10-1
  • Tom Brady 12-1
  • Philip Rivers 14-1
  • Russell Wilson 14-1
  • Ben Roethlisberger 25-1
  • Matt Ryan 25-1
  • Baker Mayfield 25-1
  • Jared Goff 60-1
  • Cam Newton 60-1
  • Deshaun Watson 60-1
  • Matthew Stafford 80-1
  • Alvin Kamara 80-1
  • Christian McCaffrey 80-1
  • Saquon Barkely 80-1
  • Le’Veon Bell 100-1
  • Antonio Brown 100-1
  • Derek Carr 100-1
  • Julio Jones 100-1
  • Sam Darnold 100-1
  • Jameis Winston 100-1
  • Sony Michel 100-1
  • Kyler Murray 100-1
  • Lamar Jackson 100-1
  • Marcus Mariota 100-1
  • Melvin Gordon 100-1
  • Michael Thomas 100-1
  • Mike Evans 100-1
  • Nick Chubb 100-1
  • Odell Beckham Jr. 100-1
  • Todd Gurley 100-1
  • Travis Kelce 100-1
  • Aaron Donald 100-1
  • Khalil Mack 100-1
  • Von Miller 100-1
  • J.J. Watt 100-1
  • Joey Bosa 100-1
  • Melvin Ingram 100-1
  • Myles Garrett 100-1
  • Mitchell Trubisky 200-1
  • Nick Foles 200-1
  • Adam Thielein 200-1
  • Amari Cooper 200-1
  • Brandin Cooks 200-1
  • Devante Adams 200-1
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster 200-1
  • Julian Edelman 200-1
  • Leonard Fournette 200-1
  • David Johnson 200-1
  • Derrick Henry 200-1
  • Devonta Freeman 200-1
  • James Connor 200-1
  • Joe Mixon 200-1
  • Phillip Lindsay 200-1
  • Dalvin Cook 200-1
  • Aaron Jones 200-1
  • Damien Williams 200-1
  • Fletcher Cox 200-1
  • Nick Bosa 200-1
  • Luke Keuchely 200-1
  • Leighton Vander Esch 200-1
  • Stefon Diggs 300-1
  • T.Y. Hilton 300-1
  • Zach Ertz 300-1
  • George Kittle 300-1
  • Tarik Cohen 300-1

 

Value Bet: Deshaun Watson 60-1

Watson generated the sixth-most Y/A (8.25) last season while suiting up behind an offensive line that yielded the most sacks per game (3.8). With the Texans spending two of their first three picks on offensive linemen (Max Scharping, Tytus Howard) in the 2019 NFL Draft, Watson should have more time to do damage from the pocket.

The Clemson product has notched top-tier numbers since entering the league in 2017, amassing the third-highest Y/A (8.3), rushing yards per game (36.0) and QB rating (103.1), as well as the fourth-highest touchdown rate (6.3 percent). With DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and Keke Coutee still in the fold, he’s on track to continue to progress at a high rate.

The Colts are the favorites in the AFC South (+100), but the Texans (+260) aren’t as far behind as some presume. Houston should earn a playoff bid, with Watson dominating along the way.

By Eli Hershkovich