Now that Kyler Murray has declared for the NFL Draft, the debate begins: how high will he go?
“I don’t think top pick,” CBS Sports NFL writer Will Brinson said on Reiter Than You. “Don’t buy any of the Arizona-might-trade-Josh-Rosen-and-go-with-Kyler stuff. I don’t think that’s going to happen. But I do think you’re talking about a guy in Kyler Murray because of the way that things have unfolded in the past five years or so in the NFL – not just in terms of spread concepts becoming integrated into the game, college-style offenses, creative offensive coordinators finding ways to utilize different style quarterbacks – but also Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield.”
Both are shorter, relatively speaking, yet both are productive NFL quarterbacks.
“They profile pretty similarly in terms of the high level of production,” Brinson said. “You ding them not for their athleticism, but for their physical stature coming out of college. The difference between Russell and Baker is that Russell was drafted in 2012 – and as a result, he fell to the third round. If Russell Wilson is coming out of Wisconsin in 2019, he’s the No. 1 overall pick. If he’s coming out in 2018, he’s a first-round pick. It’s a no-brainer.
“I don’t think Kyler Murray will go that high,” Brinson continued. “He is a little bit shorter than those guys, I think, but look, when you have a guy with his skillset and you have a need at the quarterback position, I think there’s a very good chance that he would go in the first round.”
Brinson said there’s a 25 percent that Murray is a top-10 pick, a 50 percent chance that he’s a top-20 pick, and a 100 percent chance that he’s a top-50 pick.
“If he fell to the second round, he wouldn’t get as much money on his rookie contract,” Brinson pointed out. “But if you look at David Carr and Russell Wilson as examples, he would get to that second contract a lot sooner because there’s no fifth-year option. If he’s thinking about how much can I make playing a sport I love in the next five years, football is the answer; if he’s thinking how much money can I make playing a sport I love in the next 20 years, baseball might be the better answer. But if you’re a quarterback who’s getting big-time contracts, you’re going to get comparable MLB money.”