Hurricane hunters, satellite and radar indicate the broad area of low pressure near Florida has become better defined and is now Tropical Depression #1.
"The center of Tropical Depression one was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 78.6 West," said National Hurricane Center Senior Hurricane Specialist John Cangialosi. "The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph and this motion should continue during the next day or so."
The depression has maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour. It’s expected to organize even further tonight and Sunday and could become Tropical Storm Arthur.
Local 10’s Hurricane Specialist Brian Norcross says the relatively cool ocean water should limit how strong Arthur can get, but if it gets near the Carolina coast it will pass over the warmer Gulf Stream water.
A slight difference in the track will significantly affect the warmth of the water under the system, so forecasting the strength is tricky. The official National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Arthur to become a strong tropical storm early in the week.
Some outer bands with heavy tropical downpours will rotate over Florida. Northern Broward will be on the fringe, and Palm Beach will likely get more. Otherwise, the depression will pull a bit drier air down the peninsula giving us more sunshine.