NBA Finals 2019 Game 4 Betting Guide: Odds, Against-the-Spread Pick

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Golden State Warriors wing Klay Thompson (hamstring) was ruled out just over two hours before Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night, and the line movement reflected heavy interest on the Raptors as a result. The Warriors were seen as high as a six-point favorite on Monday, but the spread closed with Steve Kerr’s unit favored by just three points.

Line value was in your favor if you snagged the Raptors as a six-point underdog: They delivered a 14-point outright victory, winning all four quarters in the franchise’s first-ever NBA Finals road game and generating their third-highest offensive rating (124.2 points per 100 possessions) of the 2019 playoffs. The Raptors are 12-7 against the spread (63.2 percent) as a single-digit underdog this season.

The Warriors yielded 120-plus points per 100 possessions for the fifth time this postseason -- unable to support Steph Curry's playoff career-high 47-point effort. As a result, much of the NBA Finals odds have shifted since they opened.

Updated series odds

Warriors -110

Raptors -110

Updated exact odds

Warriors in six: +230

Warriors in seven: +260

Raptors in five: +500

Raptors in six: +500

Raptors in seven: +330

Updated MVP odds

Steph Curry -115

Kawhi Leonard -104

Draymond Green 20-1

Kevin Durant 50-1

Pascal Siakam 50-1

Klay Thompson 63-1

Kyle Lowry 150-1

Game 4 odds

Warriors -5 (Over/Under 216)

Moneyline: Golden State -240; Toronto +200

According to Sports Insights, Golden State is just 14-28-1 (33.3 percent) against the spread this season when favored between three to 9.5 points. But Thompson will be back in the lineup in Game 4, Kerr said Thursday, though Kevin Durant will remain sidelined due to a calf injury. 

The Warriors have already showcased their prowess for bouncing back in their Game 2 win. Granted, Golden State struggled to generate offense with Curry as its lone spark plug in Game 3. I’d expect the Raptors’ attack to regress after hitting the most 3-pointers (17) on the road in NBA Finals history.

The Warriors are also 29-25 (53.7 percent) ATS over the past three seasons at home following a straight-up loss. They’ll display resiliency once again in a prime situational spot.

Initial pick: Warriors -5

By Eli Hershkovich