After a weekend full of great games that did not disappoint, we’re onto the conference championships!
The AFC and NFC championship games are set. Below are the betting odds, trends, and schedule for each game. The Kansas City Chiefs are slight favorites over the Buffalo Bills, while Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers opened -3.5 over Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
NFC Championship Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 51.5)
Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
TV Channel: FOX
Storyline: The “Football Gods” have finally answered our prayers. We get Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers meeting for the first time in the playoffs and for a spot in the Super Bowl. Big games don't get any better than this.
It will be fun to see if the 43-year old Bucs quarterback can keep up with Rodgers. Or if the Bucs defense, called by Todd Bowles, can slow down A-ROD like they did earlier this season when Tampa Bay blew out the Packers 38-10 back in October.
As for the line, it has jumped around since opening at Packers -4.5. Expect this to be the most bet game of the NFL season outside of the Super Bowl with plenty of huge wagers coming in on both teams.
AFC Championship Game
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 53.5)
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
TV Channel: CBS
Storyline: While the Buffalo Bills are red-hot and playing terrific football, one big question looms around this game: Will Patrick Mahomes play? The Kansas City quarterback was knocked out of the matchup against the Browns and is in the league’s concussion protocol.
Given the uncertainty with Mahomes, the line has already seen a ton of movement since opening. The SuperBook posted Chiefs -4 before Mahomes was injured, and I even saw it at Bills -1.5 when it was uncertain if he’d play. With word coming out that he “seems” to be doing better, the line has settled at Chiefs -2.5/ 3, depending on the book.
If you like the Bills this Sunday, it makes sense to wait. Assuming Mahomes plays, this line will move to Kansas City with public money piling on the Chiefs. There's a good chance you'll get Buffalo +3.5 or +4 closer to kickoff.
Trends to watch for:
If you were leaning Green Bay, here is a trend you might like. The Packers are 5-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) at Lambeau Field in the postseason since Rodgers took over as quarterback. As for Rodgers himself, he is 62-35-4 ATS at Lambeau Field during his career.
Think the Bills can pull the upset? This helps: Josh Allen is 27-17-2 ATS in his career.