The impacts of the coronavirus pandemic could be felt for some time in the United States, according to an economist who has been recognized for his accurate predictions in the past.
“It will take a long time for life to return to normal,” Christophe Barraud, the chief economist of the broker-dealer Market Securities, told Business Insider.
In addition to being ranked as Bloomberg’s most accurate forecaster of U.S. economic data for eight years in a row, Barraud has been recognized as a top economist for the European region since 2015 and for China since 2017.
According to Barraud, the U.S. won’t reach the level of its fourth-quarter 2019 real GDP until at least 2022. He also predicts that some countries in Europe won’t recover from the effects of the outbreak until 2023.
Barraud foresees a significant stock market correction in the second half of this year, estimating a drop of 10% or more between August and November.
“Markets are not pricing in a lot of risk,” he told the outlet.
Although stimulus checks and heavy second-quarter buying from investors have recently bolstered the economy, Barraud predicts that uncertainty in the coming months will turn the tide.
In particular, the economist is bracing for the effects of an unpredictable 2020 election and a possible second wave of COVID-19 in the winter months, “which would be very damaging.”