Fantasy Football 2020: Which NFL Draft Prospects Could Explode as Rookies?

Chance to Post Top-10 Fantasy QB Numbers in 2020: Moderate

He certainly has no shortage of weapons to work with. A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, Auden Tate and now Tee Higgins are all at his disposal. It's exactly for this reason that we don't include Tee Higgins on this list, as we just can't see him making an overly noticeable impact in such a crowded receiver corps.

But can we envision Burrow making a notable impact on your fantasy leagues? Absolutely. Tom Brady, who was barely inside the top-12 fantasy quarterback rankings in 2019, posted numbers of just over 4,000 yards passing, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions. With Burrow's group of receivers, a high-tempo Zac Taylor offense pushing him every step of the way and the whole entire city of Cincinnati at his back, Burrow should easily be able to surpass those averages of 250 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. The defense also adds an element to that, seeing as they're rebuilding but still not great, which should lead to some high-offense matchups.

Chance to Post Top-10 Fantasy QB Numbers in 2020: Very Low

It's not smooth sailing yet for the Dolphins, though it's hard to ignore that Brian Flores is building something truly special. Instead of going after some of the flashier draft prospects like a WR to line up alongside 2019 breakout DeVante Parker, two of the first four Miami picks were devoted to offensive linemen. "Tank for Tua" should slowly become "protect Tua at all costs" over the next few months.

Still, even with all this protection, former NFL head team doctor David Chao said that he thinks there's a "less than 10% chance" that Tua is able to suit up for a full season. That's red card number one for the fantasy value of the Alabama product. Number two is that he just doesn't have too many weapons around him, as Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki are promising but certainly not proven.

Chance to Post Top-10 Fantasy QB Numbers in 2020: Very Low

As far as we know, Tyrod Taylor is still the starting quarterback of the Chargers. That could change at any time, but for now, he's still the odds-on favorite.

That puts Herbert at a disadvantage already, and should Taylor play at an acceptable level, Herbert could remain in the backup role the entire season. Again, there are a lot of factors to weight here. However, it's just too risky to go with someone who isn't guaranteed the starting job over their competition. Even if Herbert does start, we just don't know how he'll be able to play in a live game situation.

As incredible as it was to watch him effortlessly launch balls at the combine, that's just a minute fraction of the entire equation of playing pro ball. Too risky, too little upside and too low a floor to be trusted this year in fantasy.

Chance to Post Top-12 Fantasy RB Numbers in 2020: Moderate to High

Finally, Andy Reid and the Chiefs have a first-round running back in their backfield. Evidently, the Chiefs weren't impressed enough with what they saw from their committee last year, headed by an aging LeSean McCoy -- now a free agent -- and the undrafted Damien Williams. Williams, after a monstrous end to the 2018-19 season, was unable to stay healthy and wasn't as dominant as he was in previous showings. Darrel Williams, also undrafted, and sixth-round pick Darwin Thompson didn't do much to assert themselves in the lineup.

And yet, the Chiefs found success on the ground. And if Damien Williams could make it through the entire draft without being picked before scoring 10 touchdowns in a six-game span back in the day, we can only imagine how much fun the Chiefs will have with LSU's Edwards-Helaire. He's dangerous in the receiving game, leading the Tigers not only on the ground but in total scrimmage yards with over 1,800, and could quickly be a three-down guy in the league's best offense.

Chance to Post Top-12 Fantasy RB Numbers in 2020: Low to Moderate

This isn't a knock on Swift at all, who many experts thought would be the only running back to go in the first round. However, the presence of a healthy Kerryon Johnson -- which certainly isn't a given, we realize -- makes it hard to imagine Swift getting enough touches to warrant even RB2 value.

I see Swift more as a weak flex that could explode if Johnson's injuries come back to bother him, at which point it's an inevitability that Swift would act as the lead back. Even if he does overtake the starting role, which is a tall task considering the Lions' big plans for Johnson last season before his health held him out, it would not be an immediate process.

Chance to Post Top-12 Fantasy RB Numbers in 2020: Low to Moderate

Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown were all that remained after the sudden release of Todd Gurley, meaning that it's not all too surprising that the Rams went after a running back early in the 2020 draft. Gurley and Henderson averaged 3.8 yards per carry last season, while Brown was a tick below at 3.7, which just screams a whole bunch of... bleh. In real life and in fantasy, the Rams running game could use an improvement.

Though the competition isn't necessarily staunch for the No. 1 running back job, Akers would really have to blow everyone away in order to capture a feature back role there so quickly. After all, Henderson was a third-round pick and only receiver 39 carries while the team continually tried to lean on the oft-injured Gurley, and so he'll also get attention from the team for the starting job. If Sean McVay can lead his offense back to the success it found in 2018, though, any running back in the committee could be a viable fantasy asset even if he only received 12-14 carries. A feature back in such a high-powered offense would appear to be a near lock for the top 10, but we're not expecting that.

Chance to Post Top-12 Fantasy RB Numbers in 2020: Low to Moderate

What a feeling it must be for Vaughn, who goes from a Vanderbilt Commodores team that went 4-12 in conference games during his stay there to a Buccaneers team led by perhaps the greatest quarterback of all time and the best group of receiving targets in the NFL.

That's going to be the focal point of Bruce Arians' offense whether Vaughn likes it or not, and he's not going to have much of a say in the matter. The good news is that the Bucs improved their offensive line in the draft as well with Tristan Wirfs and could be one of the most competitive teams in all of football, which usually bodes well for No. 1 running backs. The bad news is that Ronald Jones is receiving a lot of praise from Arians and co. and figures to be the lead back in a committee until further notice. Should Vaughn jump ahead, though, he's in for a sizable role on a good offensive team.

Chance to Post Top-15 Fantasy WR Numbers in 2020: Moderate

If you're moving to Vegas, you need to be flashy. Enter Henry Ruggs, whose blazing speed is about as flashy is it got in this year's incredibly deep receiver pool. It wasn't a huge surprise to see him come off the draft board first, though many thought Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb had the upper hand. Apparently, though, Jon Gruden's offense would appear to benefit most with the presence of the jaw-dropping speed of Ruggs.

But who the heck is going to throw him the ball? Is it Derek Carr? Is it Marcus Mariota? Is there still time for Cam Newton or Jameis Winston to head to The Strip for an attempt at a career rebound? No matter who the receiver, such a shoddy QB situation wouldn't seem to bode well for their chances at fantasy stardom.

With Ruggs, though, there's an additional question: does it even matter who throws him the ball? Or could he just torch defenders with little screens, slant routes, and other short-yardage plays that even I could help to facilitate? That, and the fact that Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfroe don't necessarily scream that they're the team's de facto top outside target, give him some sort of chance to break WR1 numbers.

Chance to Post Top-15 Fantasy WR Numbers in 2020: Low

A few things work against Jeudy here, despite the fact that he's been labeled by many as the best route-runner in the entire draft class.

For one, there is a bundle of other receivers in town. Courtland Sutton is a star and managed to go for over 1,100 yards and earn Pro Bowl honors despite completely inconsistent and unreliable QB play. He's earned the WR1 label on the team and dethroning doesn't seem like it's a feasible task in just a year, especially after such an impressive showing. The Broncos still want to get promising tight end Noah Fant and receiver DaeSean Hamilton involved. And fellow rookie KJ Hamler joins Jeudy in their new Rocky Mountain surroundings.

Second, Drew Lock is still not a proven quarterback in this league, and though he showcased a lot of promise, he doesn't seem like a guy that can produce two 1,000-yard receivers, let alone make you feel certain that he can even produce one.

And lastly, the Broncos have a dynamic duo in the backfield of Philip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon. They're going to run the ball a lot, as they should and as the game plan of Vic Fangio and Pat Shurmur will likely dictate.

Chance to Post Top-15 Fantasy WR Numbers in 2020: Low

Low?! That's it? Jordan, how could you?!

I can do that because of the pocket change Jerry Jones devoted to Amari Cooper this offseason -- a five-year, $100 million chunk of change -- and his pre-existing rapport with Dak Prescott. I can do that because Michael Gallup is on the up after recording over 1,100 yards. And we can't forget about Zeke Elliott, now can we?

So yes, "low" is what I'm going with. There are a lot of mouths to feed, and even if Lamb proves to be the next DeAndre Hopkins, even Hopkins was good but not great as a rookie. He was also, similarly to Lamb, playing behind one of the game's top wideouts in Andre Johnson.

Lamb's time will come, and you'll see flashes of it in 2020, but probably not the whole deal.

Chance to Post Top-15 Fantasy WR Numbers in 2020: Low to Moderate

Ruggs, Lamb and Jeudy were practically unanimously decided upon as the three best receivers in the draft. Jalen Reagor may not have even been in most experts' top five lists. Thus, it makes sense that some people raised eyebrows at the Eagles decision to reach for Reagor at No. 21.

Even still, I expect Reagor to immediately fulfill a big role in the Eagles offense. After playing with Carson Wentz for a year, the QBs of his college past will seem laughable. And after getting in sync with Reagor, it will seem laughable that Wentz was throwing to players signed just a week before a game throughout the 2019 season.

Still not convinced? Do yourself a favor and follow the link below, thumb through the thread and watch some of these clips. You won't regret it.

Chance to Post Top-15 Fantasy WR Numbers in 2020: Low to Moderate

There's a whole lot of room to fill with the departure of Stefon Diggs, and the Vikings couldn't have found a better guy to do it. Jefferson has the experience required to step in right away, playing in the toughest conference for a championship team and for an NFL-ready quarterback, against several NFL-ready defenders.

Ease of transition and experience aside, RADIO.COM Sports NFL insider Brian Baldinger called Jefferson the best route runner in the whole draft class and that should go to show just how special a player Jefferson can be at an early stage. Diggs and Adam Thielen were both able to put up WR1 numbers on numerous occasions, and Jefferson has one of the better outlooks for immediate production of any of these receivers.

Chance to Post Top-15 Fantasy WR Numbers in 2020: Low to Moderate

Having Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel running around the field is going to be terrifying for opposing defenses. The speed, the agility, the unrelenting love of the game... it's all there in both cases. And just as Samuel was immediately effective as a rookie, Aiyuk should have a similar experience.

He won't have to deal with Emmanuel Sanders, and though it doesn't take much analysis to know that Kyle Shanahan loves to pound the rock, Jimmy G should involve Aiyuk in a number of ways. The Arizona State product's ability to catch and run on short underneath routes and turn them into massive gains isn't something you usually see in a guy this young. A little seven-yard screen that turns into an 80-yard touchdown just kind of seems like a Shanahan-esque play, doesn't it? Aiyuk should be capable of providing those plays that fantasy owners will love to see for years to come.

Chance to Post Top-15 Fantasy WR Numbers in 2020: Low

T.Y. Hilton is the main guy in town and nothing is going to change that. He somehow remains perennially underrated despite constant, and I mean constant, elite production year after year when healthy. The depth chart behind him, though, is pretty shaky, as neither Zach Pascal or Parris Campbell or any of the other receivers were able to secure the WR2 position. In fact, it looks like it very well may belong to Pittman Jr. should he demonstrate solid production throughout training camp and use his big frame to become a primary red zone target.

I always thought Mike Williams had a 15-20% chance at breaking out and becoming that guy in Los Angeles, and I'm kind of viewing Pittman through the same lens in this case.

Chance to Post Top-15 Fantasy WR Numbers in 2020: Low

The fact that the Steelers didn't draft a quarterback, much to the chagrin of many of their fans on Twitter, could mean that Big Ben's health is looking good and that he'll be ready to go in 2020. Should that be the case, I'm taking a flier on Chase Claypool. Even if that flier is, like, the last pick of my draft.

I'm doing this because while JuJu Smith-Schuster is great, he's often injured. While James Conner is great, he's often injured. While James Washington was solid in 2019, he wasn't great. Same goes for Diontae Johnson. Eric Ebron is good, but limited in his yardage. Jaylen Samuels is a Swiss army knife but produces more quantity over quality.

Now that I've listed all of Claypool's obstacles, you should feel similar to me in that he could just walk out there and use his big frame and 4.42 40-yard dash time -- the same measurables that had him drawing comparisons to a fellow named Calvin Johnson -- to become a star for Big Ben's big arm.

Chance to Post Top-15 Fantasy WR Numbers in 2020: Low to Moderate

I was wondering when Mims' cascade down the draft board was finally going to stop, and the location was one that perked up my fantasy-sensing ears. Sam Darnold desperately needs a No. 1 receiving option, a title that I'm not giving to Jamison Crowder because he so often frequents the slot. Denzel Mims can become that guy right away, and though he has his flaws, he also has the size, ridiculous speed and impressive catch-radius of a star wideout.

He also has Hines Ward working as an offensive assistant with the Jets, so all those technical issues that he may need to iron out are in good hands. Robby Anderson left a lot of targets, specifically deep balls, to be had in New York. The opportunity in New York is limitless even with the new addition of Breshad Perriman, and if Sam Darnold has the breakout year Jets fans are begging for, Denzel Mims could be a big reason why.

Chance to Post Top-15 Fantasy WR Numbers in 2020: Low

In typical Baltimore fashion, the Ravens scooped up Duvernay late in the third round for a terrific draft bargain. He's an especially tricky one to evaluate for fantasy purposes, however.

Playing with the prior season's MVP at quarterback usually bodes well for a receiver, but Lamar Jackson isn't the usual MVP quarterback. Who knows how much the Ravens will need to pass the ball this year? Alternatively, who knows how much they may try to incorporate more of the pass so as to conserve Jackson's legs and health?

Additionally, it's not like the Ravens receiving corps is barren of talent. Marquise "Hollywood" Brown showed flashes last season, and Mark Andrews appeared to be Lamar Jackson's best friend out there. Plus, the running game got even stronger with the addition of rookie J.K. Dobbins, meaning they can still get more out of the run game even while Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards are taking breathers.

I'm expecting less of a breakout from Duvernay and more of a high YPC stat in the ultra efficient Ravens offense.

Chance to Post Top-10 Fantasy TE Numbers in 2020: Moderate to High

You almost can't count the amount of tight ends on the Bears with both hands. Kmet is the 10th at the position on the Bears, and the pick came as a bit of a surprise after the Bears made a move to sign Jimmy Graham on a somewhat expensive contract.

But Kmet is still the most talented tight end in the draft class and it's obvious that the Bears are going to value his presence. Any time a tight end gets Gronk comparisons, it either feels lazy or intriguing, and I tend to feel the latter in this situation.

With tight ends, the term "explode" or "explosive season" is definitely a relative term. It doesn't require much to "explode" as a tight end if ranking in the top ten is the qualifier, but we'll still say he has a decent shot at reaching that level in his rookie campaign.

Chance to Post Top-10 Fantasy TE Numbers in 2020: Moderate

What do I do? How do I evaluate a Patriots skill-position player without Tom Brady being the one that throws them the ball? It just doesn't compute.

But regardless of who's throwing Asiasi the ball, I expect him to act as an important cog in the offense from the get go seeing as Bill Belichick moved up to acquire him.

His fantasy upside lies in his ability up the seam, where he thrived in his senior year at UCLA. As Lance Zierlein of NFL.com noted, he averaged 15.2 yards per catch, so those mid-range throws are his sweet spot and those also seem to work really well after playing for a coach that built one of the greatest tight ends the league has ever seen along that same baseline.

Chance to Post Top-10 Fantasy TE Numbers in 2020: Very Low

If Asiasi is going to act as the primary receiving tight end, Keene is most definitely going to act as the primary blocking tight end. Because he came out of the backfield so commonly in college, the Patriots could use him in all sorts of weird and funky ways, but fantasy production shouldn't be expected.

After all, he only had 59 catches for 748 yards and eight touchdowns in his three-year college career. Asiasi had 44 catches for 641 yards and four scores in 2019 alone.