NFL conference championship games betting trends: Go over with Rodgers and Brady


Two games will determine the participants of Super Bowl LV and we are here to help prep you for Championship Sunday with a handful of different angles and trends.

Trends aren’t the only way a bettor should wager on games, but these numbers can help you gain a further understanding of how players, coaches, and situations have fared in recent history.

*All odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Tuesday morning 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 52.5)

-- A team playing its third straight road game in the postseason is 3-7 ATS since 2006.

After beating Washington and New Orleans on the road, Tampa Bay will be traveling once more to Lambeau Field for the NFC Championship game. However, it has been unprofitable to back the road team in this spot for the third time.

With that in mind, those 3 covers were all outright victories for the road warriors.

-- Since 2010, Tom Brady is 15-5 ATS as an underdog in the regular and postseason, 13-7 straight up.

The most accomplished quarterback of all time is rarely an underdog, but when he is one he has been insanely profitable. Brady is covering at a 75% clip as a dog.

-- Home favorites of 3.5 or more on championship weekend are 14-8 ATS since 2004, covering over 63% of the time.

When the line indicates a prohibitive favorite, backing that team has been profitable.

-- Aaron Rodgers is 13-6 to the over in the playoffs.

Green Bay has been arguably the best offense in the league, ranking No. 1 in the NFL with more than three points per drive. While the offense is humming this season, Rodgers has been putting up points in the postseason since becoming the Packers quarterback, going over the total in 68% of playoff games.

-- Since 2010, Tom Brady is 16-9-1 to the over in the playoffs.

What’s one without the other? Brady has also been an over machine in the postseason, cashing more than 61% of over bets in the postseason in the same time period as Rodgers.

BetQL has picks on the side and total for both NFL conference championship games this Sunday. Sign up today with BetQL and become a better bettor!

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 53.5)

-- No. 1 seeds at home in the conference championship game are 13-10 ATS since 2004.

Just because the home team had the best record in the conference does not make them a surefire bet, only showing a slight profit in the past 17 years. Both the Chiefs and Packers fit this trend.

-- Andy Reid is 3-4 ATS as a home favorite in the postseason since becoming head coach of the Chiefs.

Since 2017, Reid has not been dominant against the number, and three of those four ATS losses were also outright L’s. The only non cover win for KC was last Sunday against the Browns.

-- Patrick Mahomes is 3-3 to the over as a playoff quarterback.

Many associate Mahomes with a ton of points, but that has not been the case in his postseason career, splitting the O/U in his first six games. The books are wise to the fact that many of Mahomes' games are higher scoring and raise the point total on him.

-- Mahomes is 30-20-2 ATS in both regular season and postseason, but just 13-12 at home.

Well on his way to becoming a Hall of Famer, Mahomes has been less profitable at Arrowhead Stadium than on the road in his young career. Typically, there is a tax for betting on Mahomes and his spreads are overinflated, but the Chiefs are only -2.5 as of this writing.

-- Buffalo was tied for the best ATS record in the regular season at 11-5 (1-1 in the postseason).

The Bills were a covering machine in the regular season, outperforming expectations constantly. After a non cover against the Colts in the Wild Card Round, Buffalo was able to cash against Baltimore last weekend. They are matched up with a Chiefs team that is 1-8 ATS over its last nine games.