The Bills are in the conference championship game for the first time since 1993. It has been a long time coming for the Bills Mafia, who have been powered by Josh Allen and an explosive offense this season.
Now, the team travels to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Chiefs with a Super Bowl berth on the line. Let’s see how we got here, and if Buffalo is a valuable bet at +330 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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How it started, how it’s going
The Bills were +2800 at FanDuel to win Super Bowl LV before the season. After making the playoffs last season behind Allen, Buffalo was a serious contender to grab the AFC East crown with Tom Brady out of the division. The Bills were able to do so, winning their first division title since 1995.
Why the Bills will win Super Bowl LV
Patrick Mahomes’ health. Signs are pointing to the Chiefs’ quarterback playing on Sunday, but he was limping in the first half before a scary head/neck injury in the second half. Who knows what kind of shape Mahomes will be in come Sunday.
Even if he is healthy, the Bills have a pass happy offense that can match Kansas City’s high-scoring unit. Buffalo struggled some in their prior playoff games against the run focused Colts and Ravens. However, the Bills’ defense is stronger against the pass, ranking 11th in defensive passing success, which is much better than their rush defense that finished 25th in the league.
Kansas City runs pass plays on more than 61% of its offensive snaps, which ranks inside the top 10 of the league, so this matchup should suit the Bills’ defense better than their first two playoff opponents.
Why it's too early for Buffalo
Many have been beating the Bills’ drum for weeks and calling for the team to knock off the defending champs, but they have not been overly impressive in the postseason so far.
It took some poor execution from Indianapolis and a 101-yard pick-six against Baltimore to win both playoff games. Is Buffalo waiting for a break out, or overrated by the market?
The Bills have to be perfect against the Chiefs in order to win. If Mahomes is right, no quarterback is more dangerous, especially in big games. The moment could be too big for an upstart Bills team against the champs on the road.
The Bills are going to try and beat KC at their own game. After just nine carries by running backs in the divisional round to 37 throws from Allen, expect more of the same on Sunday evening. Allen is going to have to win this one with his arm against arguably the best QB of this generation.
Bet or don’t bet
Again, a lot of this hinges on the health of Mahomes. If he’s in, I can’t bet on the Bills to go into Arrowhead and get a victory. I am willing to wait it out and see the reigning Super Bowl MVP's status before backing Buffalo.
If Mahomes is indeed out, Buffalo is going to be a road favorite and I would rather play the Bills straight instead of getting a future price that will move towards 2/1.
Verdict: Don’t bet