Betting extraordinaire Stuckey of the Action Network was back with his NFL picks this week with The Sports Junkies.
The two free plays he offered up for Week 7 are admittedly ugly, but they don't come without sound reasoning.
Cleveland Browns (4-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-4-1)
Stuckey's Pick: Browns -3
Stuckey's reasoning: It's a good spot for Cleveland. I think that we know who Cleveland is now. If you look at two of the worst performances of the entire NFL season so far have been by the Browns, and they came against the Ravens and the Steelers, and those two teams get a ton of pressure. The Steelers can do it with their defensive line, the Ravens do it with the blitz. And Baker Mayfield under pressure? He just stinks. There's nothing else to say.
You can look at his numbers — he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL under pressure the last couple years. He's been great under a clean pocket this year, and the Bengals don't really get any pressure. And now they have nobody left on their defensive line. I mean they have guys off the street playing on their defensive line. (Carlos) Dunlap and (Geno) Atkins aren't even practicing, (D.J.) Reader and (Sam) Hubbard are on the IR. They're 31st in pressure rate. The Browns shredded them in the first game. They should be able to run all over Cincinnati, and they don't have running backs. Mayfield should have a clean pocket to work with and yeah, I would lean Browns there.
Bills (4-2) at Jets (0-6)
Stuckey's Pick: Jets +12.5
"The one game I do like, which is the ugliest bet I'll make all year. It's the first time I'm betting this team," Stuckey prefaced. "It's the Jets."
"Oh, wow!" Junkies host Jason Bishop reacted.
"Catch it with 12.5?" John Auville asked.
"It's bad, yeah," Stuckey says.
Stuckey's reasoning: I got them 13. I still like it at 12.5. I'd make it 10. It's just, it's a good spot. I mean they're 0-6 against the spread. If you look at the last three teams, the only three teams over the past decade that have been 0-6 against the spread, all three almost pulled upsets. Two of them were 0-6 straight up, with like A.J. Feeley as their quarterback. The market's just oversold the Jets. Everyone's talking about 0-16. It's a divisional game, the Bills are on a short week. I think that you'll get (Sam) Darnold back. You might get (WR) Denzel Mims back, it looks like he might play. So the Jets are getting a little healthier, and I just think the Bills aren't gonna show much.
Look, they've had two short weeks in a row. They have the Patriots on deck, which is a huge game in the division. Look, the Bills have issues. Their offensive line is a mess. They can't stop the run. No one on that defensive line is playing well. I mean the Chiefs just handed it off 40 times right up the middle and just ran it down their throat. I think this is a little high — a double-digit underdog at home for the Bills on the short week, so yeah, I took the points with the Jets and I'm trying to catch a falling knife there.