By CHRIS SCHEIM
My fellow host of the Winners Club Podcast, John Andersen, and I love analytics far too much for me to not use them in my decision making, but I will avoid boring you with DVOA and pass block win rates and boil the decisions down to need and availability. For the most part, I drafted for the teams based upon where they are currently slotted and with only one real shake-up. There are bound to be more trades in the first round, but I felt like most of them will happen in the final 12 picks and go back into the 2nd and 3rd rounds making it kind of useless for a first-round mock draft.
So, here you go (feel free to hit us up on the @WinnersClubPod Twitter account) ...
1.) Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow, QB, LSU I may not necessarily agree that this is the direction to go here, but if Cincy is picking at No. 1 this is definitely the guy.2.) Washington Redskins - Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio St Easily the best overall prospect in the draft and should anchor your line for years to come.3.) Jacksonville Jaguars (Trade with DET) - Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Bama Curveball! Jacksonville doesn’t seem sold on Minshew as “the guy” so I expect them to be aggressive here with the extra 1st round pick they have at 20.4.) New York Giants - Mehki Becton, OT, Louisville You need to make sure you protect Daniel Jones allowing him to continue to grow.5.) Miami Dolphins - Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon They would ideally prefer to get Tua here but if Jacksonville or the Chargers get aggressive I don’t expect Miami to move off their spot. Staying conservative and using the three firsts you have is the best way to fill all your holes.6.) Los Angeles Chargers - Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa If LA is unable to get Tua I don’t expect them to look at another QB until Jalen Hurts on day 2 so you may as well anchor your line after dealing Okung.7.) Carolina Panthers - Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson New Coach Matt Rhule seems to have filled the offensive holes with free agents. Replacing Kuechly won’t be easy but Simmons could be a start.8.) Arizona Cardinals - Jedrick Wills, OT, Bama Protecting potential MVP Kyler Murray should be your number one priority.9.) Detroit Lions (Trade with Jax) - Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio St Matt Patricia and John Robinsonn can trade down 6 spots and still get the guy they need? Seems like a no-brainer to me.10.) Cleveland Browns - Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia Adding Thomas to play opposite Conklin makes the Browns a legitimate contender without any major flaws.11.) New York Jets - Jerry Jeudy, WR, Bama The Jets receiving core is like a PB&J without the PB or the J. It’s bad.12.) Las Vegas Raiders - CJ Henderson, CB, Florida Can you name a single cornerback on the Raiders roster without using google? No? That’s what I thought. Henderson could change that.13.) San Francisco 49ers - Derrick Brown, DL, Auburn You traded Deforest Buckner for this pick so replacing him with a very capable guy on a much cheaper deal sounds like the play.14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Xavier McKinney, S, Bama Even before signing Tom Brady, the major flaw for the Bucs was the lack of safety presence and under Todd Bowles, McKinney should flourish.15.) Denver Broncos - Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma Vic Fangio can make Kenneth Murray into an absolute stud.16.) Atlanta Falcons - Javon Kinlaw, DL, South Carolina Grady Jarrett can only do so much. Adding Kinlaw helps Dan Quinn start building a good defense from front to back. 17.) Dallas Cowboys - K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU Adding Gerald McCoy was great but the line still needs a solid pass rush option opposite Demarcus Lawrence.18.) Miami Dolphins - Henry Ruggs III, WR, Bama Just drafted a franchise QB? Why not take pressure off Devante Parker by adding another receiving threat?19.) Las Vegas Raiders - Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson Want to know the only thing worse than the Raiders receiving core? The Jets receiving core. That’s it.20.) Detroit Lions (Trade with Jax) - AJ Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa The Lions were the league’s worst at getting pressure hence the edge pick.21.) Philadelphia Eagles - Patrick Queen, LB, LSU The Eagles linebacking is a barren wasteland.22.) Minnesota Vikings - Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State You need to try and replace Everson Griffin one way or another.23.) New England Patriots - Jordan Love, QB, Utah St Tom Brady is #goneski and neither Stidham nor Hoyer are the answers.24.) New Orleans Saints - Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU I expect the Saints to trade back here, but if not, you might as well add CB depth.25.) Minnesota Vikings - AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson You lost Trae Wayans on top of Everson Griffin so AJ Terrell becomes the patch to try and make the Minnesota defense whole again.26.) Miami Dolphins - Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin I’m sorry. Ken Laird’s estranged cousin Patrick is definitely not the answer at RB.27.) Seattle Seahawks - Zack Baun, EDGE, Wisconsin This pick could change if the Seahawks resign Clowney, but I don’t expect that to happen unless the market is completely bare.28.) Baltimore Ravens - Cesar Ruiz, IOL, Michigan One of the best guards in NFL history just retired in Marshall Yanda. You need to try and find a way to fill that immense hole to protect your MVP.29.) Tennessee Titans - Neville Gallimore, DL John Robinson dealt Jurrell Casey to sign Vic Beasley and now has the opportunity to replace Casey with a manageable rookie contract. Well done.30.) Green Bay Packers - Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU Davante Adams is amazing, but Rodgers needs someone better to throw to than the boy band of Allen Lazard, Geronimo Allison, and Jeff Kumerow.31.) San Francisco 49ers - Trevon Diggs, CB, Bama With their second pick in the first round, I fully expect San Fran to continue to bolster the defense and play to their strength.32.) Kansas City Chiefs - Grant Delpit, S, LSU Honeybadger Tyrann Mathieu plays so much slot corner getting another safety to play opposite Juan Thornhill could be the wave.